The quantity of natural emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere as used in models is no better than an educated guess. It is mistakenly assumed to be balanced out by natural sinks to show that burning fossil fuel emissions accumulate in the atmosphere. Thus, natural emissions are not included in the material balance used in the models. The reported residence times or e-folds are actually fudge factors that allow model material balances to approximate observations.
Most of the natural flow of CO2 is from tropical ocean sources to polar ocean sinks. Thus, material balances on these zones should give us a better estimate of natural fluxes of CO2 in the atmosphere. The two main sink zones are 1, north of 45 degrees North and 2, south of 45 degrees South. The main source zone is between 22.5 degrees South and 22.5 degrees North. The remaining earth’s surface area can be either net source or net sink depending on the annual seasons.
Vertical Flux in the Arctic Zone
The Main sink area in the Arctic zone (north of 45 degrees) is the open water of the Arctic ocean. In summer, when the sea ice melts, phytoplankton blooms enhance the cold water’s absorption ability. Most of the Arctic ocean is north of 70 North. When that area is mostly covered with sea ice, the main sink is effectively stoppered. Sea ice is not a sink.
CO2 is being delivered from the tropical source zone to the Arctic via upper atmosphere jet streams, The polar vortex winds keep the concentration well mixed over the Arctic zone. In this zone, an inversion exist most of the time so that the vertical flux is from the upper atmosphere to the surface. When it reaches the surface of the ice, it travels South until it reaches open water where it is readily absorbed.
The rate of change in concentration is an indicator of the CO2 flux. Time series concentration data are published at three websites. World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), ESRL Global Monitoring Division, and Sampling Station Records | Scripps CO2 Program, Most of these data are recorded as monthly averages that do not include high values that are either errors or from local sources. Figure 1 shows how well the date from fifteen sites north of 45 degrees agree. Figure 1. CO2 data from fifteen sites north of 45 degrees.
Converting these ppm data to kilograms per square meter at one atmosphere gives us the results in Figure 2.
Also, a heavy carbon depletion index was measured at these sites. These data were treated similarly with the results in Figure 3.
From after 1982 (when the index was first measured) Figure 3. is a mirror image of Figure 2. because they are mathematically and physically related. The C13/C12 ratio is an indexed fraction of the measured total. It is indexed to the actual ratio of inorganic source carbon which is given a value of zero. A mathematical expression of this relationship that can be used to estimate the relative mass fractions of organic and inorganic source carbon dioxides is:
(Total Mass)*(Measured Index) = (Organic Mass)*(Organic Index)
because the (Inorganic Mass) in the (Total Mass) is multiplied by the indexed value of zero. In the Arctic, all the values in this equation change seasonally and from year to year. The seasonal changes are directly related to the changes in the concentration of ice covering the Arctic sink. Expressed mathematically:
Equation 1. TM*MI=a+b*Ice*TM+c*TM
where TM= Total Mass, MI= Measured Index, Ice = ice concentration North of 70 degrees, and a, b, and c are regression constants.
The indexed value of the organic source fraction at any one point in time is calculated as Ice*b + c. The results are presented as Figure 4.
Figure 4. Average index value for organic source CO2 in the Arctic.
The values are within a relatively narrow range between -13.6 (least depleted) and -14.2 (most depleted). The most depletion occurs when the ice concentration is at a maximum for each year and the least depletion occurs when there is the least ice concentration each year. The fact that the values vary with sink rate indicates that the atmospheric CO2 is being fractionated as it is being delivered to the Arctic. The physical process is a combination of evaporation/condensation of water and absorbtion/extraction of CO2 in cloud water. The heavy isotope has a slightly lower vapor pressure than the lighter isotope so the concentration of the lighter isotope increases slightly in the atmosphere with each evaporation/condensation cycle of water in thunder storms. There are many of these cycles between the tropical source and the Arctic sink. The evidence of this behavior is observed when calculating the regression coefficients in equation 1 for different sets of data at different latitudes. The following table shows how significant this effect is on the b coefficient.
By contrast, the c regression coefficient does not vary significantly with latitude and thus, is the best estimate of the index value for the organic source CO2 being naturally released from the water wherever thunder storms are formed. The weighted average indexed value in the northern hemisphere is -13.301 with two standard deviations of only 0.053.
Knowing the indexed values, we can calculate the amounts of the organic and inorganic fractions and how they change with time. This is shown in Figure 5.
The organic fraction changes rather rapidly with each freeze/thaw cycle but also increases from year to year at varying rates. The inorganic fraction remains rather constant. The annual cycle is the results of natural processes but the year to year increases could be assumed to be from increases in anthropogenic emissions. The natural emission rate changes can be estimated from the changes in the slopes of the curves (rate of change in concentration, delta c/delta t). The true rate is dc/dt which can only be approximated with monthly average data. However, these data can be used to separate seasonal effects from year to year effects on flow rates. The seasonal effects are revealed with a two-month running difference. The year to year effects show up in a thirteen-month running difference. These quantities are show in Figure 6.
The two-month difference is much greater than the year-to-year difference. It is caused by the natural process of freezing and thawing of the Arctic sea ice. Most of it balances out each year. However, there is a small year-to-year difference that is not balanced out. this is shown in Figure 7.
This figure most likely shows the rate of input of the organic CO2 into the upper atmosphere of the Arctic from tropical source waters. Analysis of similar data from NOAA’s four base-line observatories ( Pt. Barrow, Mauna Loa, Samoa, and South pole) reveal that this is a global observation. Figure 8. shows the results of this analysis.
Published global anthropogenic emission rates were converted to units of kg/m^2/year by dividing by the area of the earth. This essentially assumes that these emissions are immediately put in the stratosphere and uniformly distributed over the surface of the earth (extremely unlikely or impossible). These emissions are effected by the same processes as natural emissions (absorbed in clouds and returned to the surface in rain). The best estimate of this effect is the average of two standard deviations on the calculated average of natural emissions. This value was calculated to be 0.057 kg/m^2/year and was subtracted from the unaffected anthropogenic emissions. These results are compared with natural emission rates of organic CO2 if Figure 9.
This figure graphically illustrates where the spurious correlation used as a mass balance by the IPCC was derived. It shows that natural emissions have been rising faster than sink rates over the long term at about the same rate as anthropogenic emissions. The IPPC assumes that net natural emissions over sink rates have not been rising. Over this period, the calculated average unaffected anthropogenic emission rate is more than twice the average net natural emission rate and that difference is assumed to be accumulating in the atmosphere. The calculated average affected anthropogenic emission rate is less than zero which means there is no accumulation of either natural or anthropogenic CO2 from year to year.
The rise in the net natural flow rate from the tropics is associated with temperature changes primarily in the tropical pacific. Time series changes in meteorological data for different regions can be obtained at ESRL : PSD : Monthly Mean . The primary source region selected is -22.5 to 22.5 latitude and 150 to 270 East longitude. Tabulated monthly average values for air temperature, SST, relative humidity, pressure, rain rate, precipitable water, and OLR are presented for years 1948 to present. Values from 1980 to the present were analyzed with multiple linear regression techniques to determine significant effects on the concentration and rate of change in concentration of organic source CO2. The CO2 data best fits a regression on dew point temperature (derived from air temperature and relative humidity) and the annual rate of change of precipitable water (running 13 months difference). The statistical significance is shown in the following table.
The b coefficient is for dew point temperature which is the temperature at which the surface of the ocean water evaporates and where it condenses at the bottom of clouds. The c coefficient is for the rate of change in precipitable water in a vertical square meter column. That rate of change is on the difference between the evaporation rate and the condensation rate from year to year. These results are graphically illustrated in Figure 10.
The timing of the peaks in emissions in Figure 10. is evidence that natural emissions of organic CO2 are related to ENSO changes in temperature that are controlling the evaporation and condensation of water. Those processes in clouds and thunderstorms are controlling the natural emissions of CO2 out of their tops. Anthropogenic emissions are not affecting these changes.
The IPPC claims that the increasingly negative value of the index is the “smoking gun” that proves the negative effects. However, the data strongly indicates that the negative increase is because the natural emissions of organic source CO2 has been steadily increasing with a narrow index range around -13. The index values for anthropogenic emissions range from about -25 for solids such as coal to about -40 for natural gas. If these emissions where contributing significantly to the average calculated organic source fraction, the value would be becoming more negative. The data indicates, that in the Arctic, the index values have become slightly more positive rather than more negative.
This analysis indicates that the rising temperatures in the surface waters of the oceans have been increasing biological activity. This activity starts with phytoplankton blooms that are at the bottom of the food chain and ends in the large animals and fishes. This is a good thing because it means more food for a growing human population.